";s:4:"text";s:33684:"Nassim Nicholas Taleb first suggested the term in 2001 in his book, ‘Fooled by Randomness’. Every black swan event must: 1. A grey swan is a highly probable event with three principal characteristics: it is predictable; it carries an impact that can easily cascade; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that recognizes the probability of occurrence, but shifts the focus to errors in judgment or … Don't feel bad if you've never heard of a "gray rhino." Checkout the slide at ‘1:36’ that he uses to enumerate the various black swan events in history. An example would be a person who lives in the desert insuring against flooding or … Grey Swan Guild — News Wrap Edition: #21 of Vol. These low-probability, high-consequence events show the perils of discounting risk based on the low likelihood of occurrence, without adequate consideration of the consequences. The Financial Impact of High-Risk Crises. Black swan events are more like gray swan events – they are happening more often and in more areas. Morales credited atmospheric and climate scientist Kerry Emanuel, who is affiliated with MIT’s Lorenz Center, with furthering the idea of climate change “gray swans.” They offer up … Indeed, insurance companies deal with grey swans all the time. Increasingly, he said, extreme weather and climate change must be regarded as "gray swan" events, meaning some clues to the event exist that may evolve with data and analysis, but … But by imagining these risk scenarios, we can at least prepare for them should they erupt. Time and again, however, individuals and organizations stumble during this process—for example, failing to respond to obvious but neglected high-impact “grey rhino” risks while scrambling to identify “black swan” events that, by definition, are not predictable. An event that is a black swan to most people may be a grey swan to people with more knowledge of a system. These are a series of stories and headlines we are tracking in the Grey Swan Guild’s Global League of Sensemakers Newsroom. Because there is a slight chance the event will occur it should be anticipated, particularly as it could shake up the world, the economy, the … Other examples of grey swan events are population growth, climate change, a stock market crash, and Brexit. "Both against the 'black swan,' but also against 'gray rhinoceros,' all kinds of risk signs cannot be taken lightly," the paper said. A Gray Swan is a term used to describe a potentially very significant event that is considered unlikely to happen but still possible. It’s arguable if COVID-19 is truly a “black swan” event—something that was unpredictable with profound consequences on the global economy. The incident may better align with the coined term “gray rhino” – a threat on markets that was predictable yet ignored until too late. The owner of SamProjects approached Grey Swan to design a brand new website presence … My recent read of “The Grey Rhino” by Michele Wucker looks very complementary to the Black Swan and in fact even to some extent challenges the very perspective of Black Swan events. In addition, we provide an example of a set of Grey Swan scenarios, which correspond to the RBC C-3 Phase II Wealth Factors of 2005 Bennet et al. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.’. A black swan, in other words, represents unknown unknowns (a grey swan is referred to known unknown). White Swan Event: why success is impossible to predict. Wicker 6 argues that the current pandemic is in fact a grey rhino. But only when there are sufficient data to establish prior probabilities, a robust predictive model and an understanding of what may be considered “the norm”. Every black swan event must: The Gray Swan Event Factor helps you better anticipate gray swan events and evaluate the price risks each one poses. An example of a black swan in history is Arab spring. According to Taleb, a Black Swan event has three attributes: Contrary to the low-probability black swan, the grey rhino is a high-impact, high-probability event usually ignored for various reasons. For each of these synthesised storm events, we simulated storm tides and waves in the North Sea using hydrodynamic models that are routinely used in operational forecasting systems. Prof. David Snowden‘s Cynefin framework helps one acquire some orientation in what kind of environment one is operating and how to approach decision-making under different levels of uncertainty.. For example, simple and following established best practice, complicated and requiring … Dragon king (DK) is a double metaphor for an event that is both extremely large in size or impact (a "king") and born of unique origins (a "dragon") relative to its peers (other events from the same system). Let’s look at a couple of other examples of market disruption: Many extreme events, such as the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, are considered Grey Swan events … Conversely, the economic shutdown was a great example of a black swan. Many extreme events, such as the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, are considered Grey Swan events because of the size of the impact and the many warning signs that were ignored. The corona pandemic: a white swan, not a black swan. These are our White Swan events. Don't feel bad if you've never heard of a "gray rhino." Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. Grey Swans are long-tail risks, known but thought highly unlikely – and thus firms have often neglected to invest scarce resources to prepare for them. Many extreme events, such as the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, are considered Grey Swan events because of the size of the impact and the many warning signs that were ignored. For most organizations, the likelihood of a Grey Swan event occurring is greater than preparation for it. The Grey Swan Guild Founded in April, 2020, the Grey Swan Guild is a community of sensemakers that acts as an action-based think tank rising to the world's biggest challenges. Here we define “grey swan” to mean an event which is expected on the grounds of natural variability but is not within the observational record. Conversely, the economic shutdown was a great example of a black swan. The delayed introduction of the Airbus A380 in 2006-2007 was a clear example of a grey swan event with disastrous effects. The problem of the Black Elephant in the room is that the room is already the planet. Taking into account that similar drivers, but with higher anomalies, come into play as in observed events, the record-shattering events illustrated here rather qualify as grey swan events … It includes the founding of Islam, the invention of the computer, the oxford English dictionary, the attacks of 9/11, the Harry Potter books, an… We use statistical analysis of a company’s history and peer-group to anticipate gray swan events and price their likely impact. The owner of SamProjects approached Grey Swan to design a brand new website presence … “Gray Swan is a term used to describe a potentially very significant event that is considered unlikely to happen but still possible. We all may remember the book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb of 2008 which talks about the impact of highly improbable events. Hence, organizations need to prepare for and manage grey swan and black swan events through a risk-based approach, where risk is a function of the likelihood of event occurrence and the resulting consequences. If you live long enough, you are likely to face some sort of healthcare crisis or another. A grey swan (alternately, gray swan) is a term for events that can’t be predicted but can be imagined. It can also refer to an event that’s unlikely but possible. The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Black Swan. This report focuses, however, on the Grey Swan. A grey swan event that is probable and should be anticipated. Tail risk is a type of portfolio risk that exists when the probability of extreme events is underestimated. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid. (It will only muddle things further if we mention that apparently there are also grey swan and white swan events.) Climate change is a typical example, which until recently was discounted by investors, policy makers, corporates and citizens. Summary: We as an industry need to learn to prepare better for grey swans -- rare but very possible events -- both for our own sakes and for our clients. Many extreme events, such as the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, are considered Grey Swan … Like their better-known "Black Swan'' event cousins, "Grey Swan'' events can greatly impact firms; unlike Black Swans, which seem inconceivable before they happen, Grey Swans are known beforehand. Grey swan is a by-product of black swan, a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his best-selling book with the same title. Here is The Great, the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of what we observed this week.. At best, one can probably get away calling it a "Grey" swan—a known-unknown. Contrary to the low-probability black swan, the grey rhino is a high-impact, high-probability event usually ignored for various reasons. Black Swan: A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict. Check the Grey Swan Calendar and join us in our latest events: Sensemaking Salon — Personal Transformations We probably could/should have known a global pandemic was a distinct possibility. Examples: The September 11 attack; the emergence of Bitcoin. •Important to understand that small, random events can have enormous consequences •Examples: •Gore vs. Bush •Archduke Ferdinand’s driver made a wrong turn in 1914 •Lt. Black swan events are surprising, have an unprecedented consequence and are often rationalized by hindsight. But their close cousin – grey swans – can enter our imaginations. Whether it be a chronic illness or a tragic accident, most people get stuck with unexpected bills from time to time. A “black swan” refers to a hard-to-predict event that deviates from the norm and can have catastrophic ramifications. Forget About Black Swans; Worry About Gray Rhinos Instead. Such unexpected events often signal their arrival far in advance. Besides a pandemic, other grey swan events could include such things as a major cybersecurity attack, a significant climate incident, and a global war. For most organizations, the likelihood of a Grey Swan event occurring is greater than preparation for it. He specifically mentions things like the rise of the internet, the invention of the personal computer, and the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events. 6 Respecting the Grey Swan Defining the Grey Swan 1 Statistical analysis is great. The current COVID-19 pandemic is a characteristically perfect example of a black swan event. Think California wildfires, a hurricane … But a crisis event that telegraphs danger signs in advance is not a black swan: it's a gray rhino. … In order for an event to be considered a black swan, Taleb listed three elements (or attributes) that the event must possess. He refers to “gray swan events” as large macroeconomic or social events that severely disrupt society, such as the global financial crisis of 2008. A grey swan is a highly probable event with three principal characteristics: it is predictable; it carries an impact that can easily cascade; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that recognizes the probability of occurrence, but shifts the focus to errors in judgment or some It was certainly not the first nor the last time a Like their better-known "Black Swan'' event cousins, "Grey Swan'' events can greatly impact firms; unlike Black Swans, which seem inconceivable before they happen, Grey Swans are known beforehand. Like black swans though, their impact can be huge. 1. It is about actively seeing what’s in front of us and challenging ourselves to act,” Michele Wucker wrote in “To avoid the next pandemic, you need to know the difference between a black swan and a grey rhino,” published in The National April 23, 2020. Grey swan is a by-product of black swan, a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his best-selling book with the same title. Grey Swans are highly unlikely, the researchers said, but they can be predicted with a degree of confidence. In 2007, he expanded on the concept in his better-known book, ‘The Black Swan’. Drawing the right conclusions from that is important. I would argue that Covid-19 was a gray swan. Grey swan reputation events have wiped out nearly $1.2tn in shareholder value over the past 40 years, and their impact is worsening and harder to recover from, according to a … Oct 12, 2020 | Zolio Market Commentary. These are low probability, high impact events that few expect. (2006). This is a complete fallacy. Examples given of the Black Swan are the First World War and the October 1987 stock-market crash. These Grey Swan events are "unknown knowns" that are anticipated, discussed and warned about with increasing urgency, but the warnings are unheeded. Fractals can help turn black swan events into grey swan events and make them imaginable, if not entirely predictable. Because Black Swans are, by definition, unpredictable, we’re better off preparing for the widest range of contingencies than predicting specific events. If we already know of a certain “risk”, it becomes a “Gray Swan”. Unlike their cousins, grey swan events are possible and knowable, even though they may be regarded as unlikely. Black swans have become ironically famous; once used as a metaphor for an unforeseeable and historically unprecedented event, black swan talk has become more common in finance than just about anything else. Time and again, however, individuals and organizations stumble during this process—for example, failing to respond to obvious but neglected high-impact “grey rhino” risks while scrambling to identify “black swan” events that, by definition, are not predictable. 1. We probably could/should have known a global pandemic was a distinct possibility. A black swan event results in severe and widespread consequences. Following the success of Taleb’s early works “Fooled by Randomness” and “The Black Swan”, economists, strategists and statisticians coined a new term – the grey swan. A white swan even can be predicted with a high level of accuracy because of facts and data available. Examples include, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Japan’s Tsunami and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, terrorist attacks like 9/11, and the 2019 Christchurch shootings. There are Black Swan events (unprecedented, unimagined), Grey Swan events (conceivable but neglected) and White Swan events (reasonable frequency, inherently preventable). They aren't even our base cases. "Both against the 'black swan,' but also against 'gray rhinoceros,' all kinds of risk signs cannot be taken lightly," the paper said. The Black Elephant in the Room is, therefore, the result of the sum of the two possibilities and of the two concepts. (It will only muddle things further if we mention that apparently there are also grey swan and white swan events.) It was the perfect storm – and practically nobody saw it coming. On the outcome of the 2016 US presidential elections, Taleb says an event that is “50-50”, or a two-horse race, cannot be a black swan. Because there is a slight chance the event will occur it should be anticipated, particularly as it could shake up the world, economy, and stock market” Source: Investopedia The theory of Black Swan events was developed to categorize non-predictable, high-impact events. Whether or not you are a fan of ballet or birds, the term “ black swan ” should sound quite familiar by now. Why we should ignore the Gaussian bell curve? My recent read of “The Grey Rhino ” by Michele Wucker looks very complementary to the Black Swan and in fact even to some extent challenges the very perspective of Black Swan events. Here is The Great, the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of what we observed this week.. We discuss how real world Grey Swan scenarios are excellent choices for stress and resiliency testing. For most organizations, the likelihood of a Grey Swan event occurring is greater than preparation for it. These are a series of stories and headlines we are tracking in the Grey Swan Guild’s Global League of Sensemakers Newsroom. I would argue that Covid-19 was a gray swan. Black Swan Definition and Misuse . A Green Swan is a profound market shift, generally catalysed by some combination of Black or Grey Swan challenges and changing paradigms, values, mindsets, politics, policies, technologies, business models, and other key factors.. A Green Swan delivers exponential progress in the form of economic, social, and environmental wealth creation.At worst, it achieves this outcome in two … Grey Swan Guild — News Wrap Edition: #21 of Vol. Check the Grey Swan Calendar and join us in our latest events: Sensemaking Salon — Personal Transformations Just google "Corona" or "Covid" in combination with the word "Black Swan" and there are a whole host of links that appear with many calling the COVID-19 crisis a "Black Swan event". Each of these event categories and experiences is exposed to significant potential “Black or Gray Swan events” that could affect positively or negatively the way that they do business. The invention of the computer, 9/11 attacks and the First World War are examples of Black Swan events. In order for an event to be considered a black swan, Taleb listed three elements (or attributes) that the event must possess. Grey Swan Events from the Past 20 Years. Credit: Flickr/Wikipedia ... a grey rhino maybe an example of known knowns. Black swan events are the unknown unknowns that no one can even envisage, let alone predict. Classifying Black Swan Events. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.’. For example we know that a plane crash is unlikely to happen, the chance is minimalistic. The report draws attention to cognitive biases and explains how ambiguous and uncomfortable data are easy to ignore, how the impact of Grey Swan events is substantial and enduring, and how value recovery is a function of critical pre- and These often lead to significant improvements in risk management frameworks that can transform extreme risks into manageable ones. The word Black Swan was popularized after the meltdown that resulting after the Financial crisis of 2008. The Grey Swan Event. He described a black swan as an extremely unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. (13 mins) Read Now Watch this short video where he explains the concept. Like their better-known "Black Swan'' event cousins, "Grey Swan'' events can greatly impact firms; unlike Black Swans, which seem inconceivable before they happen, Grey Swans are known beforehand. A black swan event is unpredictable. To be classified as a Black Swan event, one must be completely unexpected. These events could be a corporate meeting, a trade show, conference, sports or music event, or even a wedding, Bar Mitzvah, or social gathering. The appearance of the Black Swan event was an Outlier because it could not be predicted or expected, to carry Extreme Impact and to carry Retrospective Predictability in that we naturally after the event develop explanations for them. As the U.S. steadily emerges from the pandemic — and we all hold out hope for India — the temptation is to dismiss it as a one-off, a once-in-a-century health disaster, a black swan. Examples include, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Japan’s Tsunami and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, terrorist attacks like 9/11, and the 2019 Christchurch shootings. Now, imagine the impact of two grey swan events happening simultaneously, along with a black swan event. The researchers call these potentially devastating storms Grey Swans in comparison with the term Black Swan, which has come to mean truly unpredicted events that have a major impact. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. By comparison, the ‘black swan’ is an event that cannot be predicted, appears seemingly out of nowhere and has a profound effect across a multitude of sectors. This can often occur when a complex system has a series of feedback loops. Give me some context The Colonial Pipeline attack is just one case where the underinvestment in security and infrastructure was exposed. We are made up of established experts, rising stars, and impassioned agents for positive change across 30+ countries from many professional domains, and demographics. Setting 2008 as the base case example, Taleb argued that Black Swan events are almost impossible to predict yet have far-reaching consequences, therefore, people should always assume that a Black Swan event would take place & plan accordingly. The Gray Swan By Leo Melamed Peking University Beijing, China April, 12, 2009 There are some people in the financial world claiming that the colossal global meltdown that has occurred in financial markets is an example of a “Black Swan” event. Although the term had been floating around for a while, the phrase “Black Swan Event” only recently reached general usage. After the occurrence of a black swan event, people will rationalize the event as having been predictable (known as the hindsight bias). The grey rhino, a term coined by Michele Wucker, is a cross between black swans and elephants in the room. In other words, it was unpredictable. Examples of Black Swan events include the First World War the rise of Hitler and the invention of the Internet. By comparison, the ‘black swan’ is an event that cannot be predicted, appears seemingly out of nowhere and has a profound effect across a multitude of sectors. Col. Petrov chose not to report false missiles in 1983 12-November-2020 Grey Swans and Black Elephants: Why we keep getting surprised and what we can learn from them 10 Established in 2004, they have helped an extensive list of clients realise their big event, providing a simple kit hire or a full project solution on all fronts – and everything in-between. Business executives, entrepreneurs, and government leaders need to be cognizant of black swan and grey swan events, and their attendant potential consequences in order to prepare for and manage their impact to business, communities, nations, and the global community as a whole. He If COVID-19 is no black swan. A true white A microscopic virus has brought the world to its knees. In this case, a plane crash is a Gray Swan event. Established in 2004, they have helped an extensive list of clients realise their big event, providing a simple kit hire or a full project solution on all fronts – and everything in-between. A contemporary example is a 1,000 year flood or 9/11. Additional advanced material has been added as … “Unlike the black swan that appears only in hindsight, grey rhino theory is forward-looking. Instead, it may be more appropriate to apply strategies devised for managing the consequences of Black Swans to low-probability, high-consequence Gray Swan events. 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